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Fourth, traditional military alliances exert a diverse influence. Allied countries are better equipped to meet the modernization needs of the other, instead face common threats, and instead share foreign policy objectives. Therefore, alliances are expected to increase the demand for AA in general. But I expect a unique influence for NATO, because its mandate is exceptionally broad in areas – training, defence research, joint exercises, etc. – that are also addressed by the CADs. As a result, demand for AOPs between NATO countries is expected to be lower. As CADs are an important mechanism for potential NATO members to show direction, I expect at the same time a positive effect on the mating between NATO members and PfP (Partnership for Peace) countries. Overall, fe estimates strongly support assumptions, including the proposed cause-and-effect mechanism. Not only do network influences stimulate DCA education, but these influences also disappear for dyads with existing DCA. Figure 10 shows the predictive margins for the network variables in both samples based on the estimates presented in Figure 9.

With low levels of mutual degree, the probability of countries signing a first ACA is virtually zero. If the degree of interaction reaches its median value, the probability of a first AAA is nearly 75 percent. However, for subsequent agreements, characterized by the dotted (red) line, the degree of reciprocity is practically irrelevant. Two paths have an equally dramatic effect. With a minimum of two paths, the probability of a first DCA is about 25 percent. When two paths reach their median value, this probability reaches nearly 75 percent. And as with the mutual degree, the effect of two-track agreements is effectively zero. These substantial predictions confirm the conclusion that the influences of networks depend on information mechanisms and are not wrong for omitted variables. CADs also increase ex post trust. For example, Iran`s defense minister called his country`s 2002 DCA with Kuwait a “confidence-building effort” and repeated a phrase that comes up repeatedly in the leaders` statements and in the texts of the DCA themselves. Footnote 44 The Chinese and Indian prime ministers highlighted this logic in a joint public statement on their 2005 CBA and said that “expanding and deepening defense exchanges between the two countries is essential to strengthening mutual trust and understanding between the two armed forces.” Footnote 45 CDAs create trust by repeatedly involving governments in concrete acts of cooperation that involve non-trivial risks.

Footnote 46 While cooperation issues are primarily concerned with ex ante trust issues, I later show that increased ex-post trust reinforces the network effects of CADs. . . .


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